Showing posts with label historical. Show all posts
Showing posts with label historical. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

An Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

It's three weeks from Election Day 2012 and their are plenty of interactive maps out there for a person to click on swing states until they're blue in the face -- or, if you're of a different political persuasion, red in the face.  One of my favorite sites is run by Dave Leip -- appropriately named "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections."

Dave Leip's site has been around since the 90s.  It has had interactive user-generated information for Presidential elections since 2004. The site allows you to predict what you think will happen in the Presidential race, as well as each Senate and Gubernatorial race.  You can also make a prediction on each primary contest. All of these can be updated at any time until the election.

First you choose who you think will win each state red or blue (or third party), and then in a separate map you can choose your confidence level:

A confidence map on Dave's site.
Darker states rate as "solid"; lighter as "lean".  Grey states count as toss-ups.  Each person puts in whatever they'd like. 

Wait wait, you say? The colors are backwards?

Yep, that's right.  The reds and the blues are backwards.  Dave designed the site before the 2000 election, when "red states" and "blue states" took off in the national lexicon.  Dave used the color schemes used in some other parts of the world where "red" = "liberal" and "blue" = "conservative."

The great thing is that after a number of people enter their predictions, the site aggregates the predictions and gives a pretty good middle of the road prediction on where things may stand.

Compiled predictions of all users of Dave's Atlas as of 16 October 2012.

Plus it keeps track of where the aggregation has been in the past, broken down by confidence:

Aggregate history for the Republican Primary predictions.
(Romney=green, Gingrich=blue, Santorum=orange, Perry=tan, Paul=yellow, Tossup=grey)
On top of this there is historical data going way back to Washington in 1789 and historical electoral college calculators also going all the way back. You can use an electoral college calculator with the correct number of historical votes to see what happened, or what might have happened. There is county-level data going back to 1964, plus all sorts of other, state-level data.

County-level 1976 data. Note the concentration in Georgia, home of Jimmy Carter.

Plus, there's all sorts of polling information. But, to be honest, there's another polling site I like much better.

It's a wonderful site, full of more information than I can share here.  Go check it out.




Thursday, July 7, 2011

You're Going to Make (a Map) After All

I've been on a 1970s groove as of late -- possibly due to Hulu's recent addition of the first three seasons of The Mary Tyler Moore Show to its offerings.  With Minneapolis as its setting, the show highlighted life in the Twin Cities in the early part of the decade.

The then-and-now factor is worth noting.

The tallest building in the Twin Cities in 1970 -- which is when The Mary Tyler Moore Show first aired -- was the Foshay Tower, built in 1929. The Quest Building and Minneapolis City Hall were built in 1932 and 1909 and came in second and third place.  You can see these all in this shot from the opening credits, as Mary drives into town in her white Mustang.


The Foshay Tower is on the left (the "St Paul" sign is pointing to it), the Qwest Building (at the time known as the Northwestern Bell Building) is in the middle behind and slightly to the right of the overpass below Minneapolis's arrow, and the City Hall it the building that looks like a castle off to the right. 

The great thing about Google StreetView is that you can compare this to today.



The Foshay is still barely visible, in front of the IDS Center, built in 1975.  Everything else in the Mary Tyler Moore still is pretty well obscured.  But even though the exit ramp seems to have moved, the overpass toward which she is driving looks distinctly the same.

To give you an idea of what the Minneapolis skyline looked like back then, here's a 1975 photo from the Minnesota Historical Society. The Foshay Tower is on the left.  The big building in the center is the then-newly-built IDS Center.  The picture is probably taken from the top of City Hall.


Here is another view of the skyline in 1975.  Loring Park is in the foreground. The IDS Center is on the left and the Foshay is just to the right of it.



Compare this to the 2007 skyline.  Loring Park, where the above photo was taken, would be is just a bit to the left.  The IDS Center is still prominent, but the Foshay Tower is harder to find -- it's the shorter building, right in the middle of the photo.  Minneapolis, it seems, grew up.

[photo credit: Steve Lyon]
I suppose a blog post about Mary Tyler Moore on a map blog wouldn't be complete without a map to the statue of her on Nicollet Mall, right?



Saturday, May 14, 2011

It's fun to say "Atchafalaya"

Before I begin, I need to say it’s just fun to say Atchafalaya. Say it aloud: Atchafalaya. Ah-CHAF-fuh-LIE-uh. Native American place names in the South, like Atchafalaya and Chattahoochee, are just as fun to say as Native American place names from the North, such as Winnipesaukee and Kinnickinnic.

The Atchafalaya River has been in the news as of late. The flooding in the Lower Mississippi River, which I mentioned earlier last week, is slowly working its way downstream toward Baton Rouge and New Orleans. This flood is of epic proportions – levels this high have not been seen in the area since 1937.

The Atchafalaya is a distributary of the Mississippi. (A river distributary is the opposite of a tributary. A tributary is a river that feeds water into a main river; a distributary is a river that takes water from a main river, often in a river delta area.) Since the 1860s, the Atchafalaya has been growing, taking more and more water from the Mississippi and diverting it through central Louisiana to the Atchafalaya’s mouth south of Morgan City. In the mid-19th century the Atchafalaya took 10% of the Mississippi's water.  Today, it's 30%.

The Army Corps of Engineers will alleviate some of the flooding in a similar, yet slightly different, manner to which they did upstream near Cairo, Illinois, a couple of weeks ago.

Upstream the Mississippi is penned in by a series of dikes which keeps flooding out of cities and farmland on either side of the river. The Corps blew up some of the dams on the Missouri side of the river to keep the river from topping the dikes around Cairo, effectively sacrificing farmland on the Missouri side to save the Illinois city of 3000 people.

 Changing Mississippi River deltas over the past 5000 years

In Louisiana, however, the problem is more complex. The Mississippi River has found several outlets in the Gulf of Mexico over the course of the last 5000 years through a wandering of its delta in a process known as avulsion. Since the Mississippi lays down such a large amount of silt into the gulf, the river delta grows longer and shallower over time, with gravity coaxing the river to constantly search for newer, steeper, more efficient outlets to the sea. For most of the last century, the Army Corps of Engineers has been charged with the significant task of keeping one navigable channel via the Mississippi.

Old River Control Structure. Red line indicates the Atchafalaya Outflow Channel.
Through a series of dikes and spillways, primarily at Old River Control Structure near Red River Landing and the Morganza Spillway near Morganza, the Corps has prevented the Mississippi from finding a more westward course. And, as long as the water levels stay low enough, it’s a difficult but possible feat. However, the Mississippi is a powerful force. With recent flow rates reaching 1.5 million cubic feet per second above Baton Rouge due to the flood, the Mississippi is an even more powerful force than normal.

(Check out this interactive map of both the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River systems in Louisiana showing where the river basins, spillway and dike systems, and diversions in the two river systems are located.)

Today the Corps opened the Morganza Spillway into the Atchafalaya. The reasons are twofold: first, the flood is high enough that the river would top the control structures even if they were not opened, which is dangerous; and second, Baton Rouge and New Orleans would be inundated without it. One news report stated that if the Morganza Spillway (just downstream from Old River) and the Bonnet Carre Spillway (just west of New Orleans) were not opened, that New Orleans could be swamped with over 20 feet of water. Memories of Hurricane Katrina come to mind.

The parts of the Atchafalaya basin that would flood are home to 25,000 people and 11,000 structures. The population in the basin was given several days' warning before opening.  Even after opening the spillway, significant time would pass for the waters to reach the southern parts of the basin.

Travel times from when the spillway opens until when floodwaters reach an area
 The limited diversion into the Atchafalaya may save New Orleans in the short-run. But in nearly every article I’ve read, experts about the river for the past 150 years have repeatedly said that eventually the river will turn west, sooner or later, leaving a significantly smaller Mississippi to run through Baton Rouge and New Orleans -- and an economic devastation to the chemical and shipping industries there that rely on the river. The Corps is charged with not letting that happen. But nature makes a formidable adversary.

To learn more:

Louisiana Old River Control Structure and Mississippi River Flood Protection
Has some wonderful maps that show how the history of the control structure and how the levees work.

Flooding Scenarios for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Basins
Three flooding scenarios run by the Army Corps of Engineers, released May 8, 2011. The first opening the Morganza Spillway 50%, the second by not opening Morganza Spillway, and the third by diverting water through the Old River Control System.

Atchafalaya
An article from New Yorker Magazine from 1987 that provides a rich history of the area and a look into the local perspective on controlling the river both in a current (1987) perspective and a historical perspective. It looks into the 1927, 1937, and 1973 floods, and what happened to the control process before and after these floods.

Interactive South Louisiana Map
The interactive map mentioned above showing the river basins, spillway and dike systems, and diversions in the two river systems are located.